Ukraine’s War: Battlefield, Strategy and Prospects for Peace
The state of the war and the battlefield
Michael Kaufman describes Ukraine as performing better on the ground than in recent years, while facing extensive Russian strikes on energy and other civilian infrastructure. He says Russia’s ground campaign has reached diminishing returns and that strategic bombardment has become a major part of its effort. Preston Stewart maps the fighting across the north-eastern border areas, the Donbas, and the south, and explains that front lines include broad contested zones rather than continuous defensive lines.
Drones, combined arms and territorial advances
The guests explain how drones, artillery, mines, infantry and vehicles interact. Many drones are remotely operated and require substantial manpower; footage of successful strikes can obscure how many attempts fail. Fiber-optic drones can evade electronic jamming, but their cables constrain their use. Russia relies heavily on infiltration by small groups, while Ukrainian operations seek to suppress Russian drone units and logistics before advancing with fewer losses.
They also discuss the difficulty of defining territorial control: a flag or a soldier in a position does not necessarily mean a force can hold or use the surrounding area. Kaufman and Stewart say inaccurate Russian battlefield reporting can mislead commanders and affect operations, while noting that reporting problems also occur in Ukraine.
Lessons from the war and its opening phase
The conversation considers how far the war’s lessons apply to other militaries. The guests describe the conflict as a rapidly changing, human-intensive war, while cautioning that its conditions—including the lack of air superiority for either side—may not generalize to every future conflict. They compare centralized command with the delegation of authority to junior leaders, and discuss the role of military culture, innovation and coordination.
Kaufman recalls that he anticipated a full-scale Russian invasion but not how it would be conducted. He says analysts overestimated aspects of Russian performance and underestimated Ukrainian resistance, and stresses the uncertainty involved in judging how two forces will interact. The discussion also outlines tactical, operational and strategic levels of military analysis, and how military operations relate to political goals.
Bakhmut, Wagner and Prigozhin’s mutiny
Kaufman describes Bakhmut as a grinding siege and urban battle involving Wagner assault groups, Russian artillery and airborne forces, and Ukrainian defenders. He discusses the city’s political significance, the costs of holding it, and the debate over whether Ukraine remained there too long. The guests then trace Wagner’s rivalry with Russia’s military leadership, the demand that its personnel sign military contracts, and Prigozhin’s march towards Moscow as leverage in a confrontation with the government. They say Wagner was dismantled, while some of its assault tactics were adopted by the regular Russian military.
Leadership, war aims and the prospects for peace
The guests discuss Putin and Zelensky’s roles, arguing that neither appears to direct battlefield decisions day to day. Kaufman distinguishes Russia’s failed initial attempt to replace Ukraine’s government from the later war of attrition, and says Russia’s political demands exceed what its military has achieved. They consider manpower, economic pressure, outside support for both sides, and the continuing damage to Ukraine’s economy and infrastructure.
The conversation assesses U.S. and European policy, including military support, diplomacy, sanctions, and the risks of a ceasefire without security guarantees. Kaufman says a ceasefire could become a pause for rearmament rather than lasting peace; he describes a limited ceasefire as a possible first step, but says Russia is not currently willing to accept one on those terms. The guests also consider Ukraine’s future after the war and Russia’s longer-term political direction.
War, humanity and hope
Asked what gives them hope, Stewart describes a drone evacuation system used to rescue a wounded soldier, while Kaufman recounts a commander rescuing two wounded soldiers from a disabled vehicle. They reflect on the courage, care and dark humor they have witnessed alongside the destruction of war. The conversation closes with thanks to the guests and listeners.